Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 61727.058256 65314.808594 68906.436801 72768.933919 76802.440935 80887.440415 85334.506959
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56327.821873 61831.383246 67498.960425 73762.701776 80482.266228 87465.396343 95261.996858
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52183.524471 58973.046172 66122.258373 74192.973316 83031.845187 92398.924557 103057.378431
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 48738.743557 56455.077395 64734.062177 74247.204536 84845.331203 96258.222525 109445.982882
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46110.276786 54578.600023 63814.471537 74591.185883 86774.465581 100074.758222 115644.908815
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 43708.931757 52769.285115 62799.242543 74665.778333 88258.794373 103279.634526 121067.827575
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42231.966330 51897.585866 62740.909590 75728.305472 90778.706441 107588.078987 127695.157812
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40236.624457 50306.714852 61750.691241 75620.941291 91874.148548 110212.256794 132358.006255
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39167.315210 49735.124242 61884.411251 76765.654753 94375.995493 114423.871332 138837.468478
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 37982.802158 48958.925132 61718.917402 77506.883248 96366.249113 118018.978310 144595.761609
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36511.348194 47767.298778 60997.573588 77531.033313 97463.182757 120537.749615 149077.599604
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35079.946044 46563.217926 60205.665340 77418.560173 98353.648960 122781.765949 153217.083945
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34331.047842 46186.351430 60411.030540 78518.171080 100720.083585 126814.628200 159543.261362
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33490.384542 45660.311124 60406.225884 79341.147520 102743.137128 130443.226601 165411.246761
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32504.430739 44910.177790 60089.147528 79749.219065 104238.632879 133427.998216 170510.602170
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31409.933773 43979.557197 59509.287963 79796.814374 105264.322555 135827.895124 174898.860765
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30525.999603 43287.687597 59201.090537 80159.140533 106661.164050 138671.292170 179830.738508
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29565.202905 42460.914536 58690.412612 80237.729956 107682.517402 141042.132795 184183.443831
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29116.799268 42291.909006 59009.263384 81362.947965 110016.562503 145039.839945 190560.517192
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28161.907741 41415.307163 58383.358202 81249.230947 110762.808841 147055.333283 194482.187437
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27810.551915 41336.901687 58787.983141 82461.390071 113197.729906 151187.753799 201061.339822
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27302.495661 41026.886632 58872.936613 83246.182418 115080.706124 154632.221862 206796.820744
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26514.212936 40307.725464 58393.706343 83271.750266 115970.877131 156818.231651 210954.295552